One More Last Chance For Iran

Iran is teetering on a political precipice. Very soon it will fall one of two ways.

Iran will either back down or get shut down.

They’ve adopted an anti-civilization stance since their muslim-revolution in 1979. They purged themselves, fought with their neighbors, threaten the world, and sent terrorists to kill the people in many places. They were identified as a charter member of the “Axis of Evil” by the President of the United States. And have been sponsoring the terrorists in the Global War On Terrorism (GWOT). Even with a stack of sins that high, they weren’t on the edge of what is about to happen.

What put them on the brink of doom is their well-publicized effort to acquire nuclear weapons and their public declaration that they will destroy the nation of Israel. Any reasonable reader of the news should be able to deduce that Iran intends to use nuclear weapons against Israel some time after they get them. Since it appears that nothing short of national disintegration will change their minds, the only solution is to deny Iran the ability to possess nuclear weapons.

As much as a nuclear attack on America would bother us, a geographical small nation like Israel couldn’t absorb the attack and expect to recover. Thus is seems that nothing short of national disintegration will prevent them from doing everything they must to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Some say it would be impossible for Israel to succeed with such a mission against Iran.

That’s what some people said prior to the successful 1981 mission against Hussein’s nuclear reactor in Iraq and the surprising 2006 mission against the “secret” nuclear reactor in Syria. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, it does suggest more truth than those who oppose freedom’s war against terrorism.

Suppose Iran doesn’t back down. Suppose Israel decides Iran is about to have functional nuclear weapons. Suppose no other nations shut down Iran. Then one of two things will happen.

The first possible outcome is that Israel once again pulls off the impossible. They destroy the 1000-megawatt nuclear plant at Bushehr and the other two-dozen or so suspected nuclear targets. In the process they out-think and out-fight what ever defensive actions Iran tosses at them. Standing in the rubble of extensive national damage and total embarrassment Iran would have two choices.

Choice one: Cut their losses and back down. Squeal to the UN and complain about the aggression of Israel, producing nothing more than a tongue-lashing for Israel. Israel, believing they saved their own lives, would tacitly accept the short season of talk. Eventually indigenous forces for change inside of Iran would prevail and they would have regime change.

Choice two: Iran squirts out of their borders with their diminutive airpower only to have most, if not all of it converted into smoking holes in the sand. Iran’s neighbors are not likely to give them free-transit of their airspace. Most of Iran’s neighbors are friendly enough with America to request assistance as needed. Having failed in the air, they would try to shut down the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz. After one or two successful attacks against merchant vessels, American air and sea power would neuter Iran’s ability to project power. Civil unrest at the embarrassing turn of events would most likely produce a violent regime change.

Another outcome supposes something different. Suppose Israel’s attack is unable to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Then Iran will most likely use their nuclear weapons on Israel. Maybe even on some of their other neighbors, but certainly against Israel.

Thanks to Jimmy Carter the world has little doubt that Israel has more than 100 nuclear weapons.

Let’s suppose Iran’s nuclear strike on Israel is successful. Israel would have little need for their nuclear weapons after they’ve been wiped off the map. Thus, they would at least give a major portion of their arsenal to Iran. Pointy end first. The parties in the streets of Iran’s major cities would be short-lived. The bowl of death produced by the nuclear shock-waves rebounding off the mountain ranges around Tehran would probably be studied for years by nuclear weapons experts. There would probably be little left of the near 13 million who live there now. But that would be from just one of the more than 100 weapons that would rain down on the Iranians. The small bands of survivors in the less populated areas of Iran would eventually be assimilated by their neighbors as the land became more inhabitable. The ultimate regime change.

The really ugly part of that entire scenario is that it would establish a precedent for using nuclear weapons in war. A pity for twenty-first century humanity, especially after over 60 years of investment by Americans to deter use of such destructive weapons.

But that’s what happens with rogue nations are not convinced to back down.

When will the attack happen?

According to John Bolton, former American ambassador to the UN, the attack will take place between the November 4, 2008 presidential election and swearing in of whoever replaces George W. Bush on January 20, 2009. Thus George W. Bush will be in command of the American response to Israel’s bombing of Iran.

So is all lost?

Not yet. You might have read in the news about the American envoy going to Geneva this week for the Iran nuclear talks. It hasn’t gotten as much attention as the Obama cartoon on the cover of the New Yorker or Jackson’s vulgar language but it’s much more important than either of those.

It is completely out of step with American policy. Presidents have been impeached for less. Yet, the civilized-world’s leader is sending Williams Burns, the third highest-ranking American diplomat to Geneva. The cover story is that he’s there to listen.

Of course we know that diplomats are best at talking, not listening. Is it possible that America is going to give Iran one more last chance? Will Mr. Burns say something like, “Let me help you save yourself from embarrassment, pain, and national suicide. Back down or get shutdown.” Will he? I hope so.

It just makes sense.

2 Responses to “One More Last Chance For Iran”

  1. Paunch says:

    Very Good read,

    However Iran – and Iraq – greater Persia at the time, under Calif Khwarazmian already suffered the fate you mention above ala the12th century…maybe even worse. Funny how history tends to repeat its’ self. This self same Calif Khwarazmian was offered a choice of peace and trade with the super power of the time. He chose to – three times- kill the emissary’s from the supper power and rob them of their gifts, intended as a peace offering. After the third and most humiliating response from the Calif (the Persian leader had a few of the peace emissaries that he did not kill returned to the Super Power leader with their beards burned off ala Islam). After this outrage the Super Power did what super powers did back then…. Which was to invade and massacre men women, children, the old and every living thing. The story says that so many were put to the sword that the blood flowed like a rain storm flooding the desert. Now insulting a super power was no small thing back then and a lesson had to be taught, not just to the Persians, but to every other nation in the area that would dare to stand and insult the great. So… huge pyramids of human skulls were erected from the dead as well as the great cities were totally thrown down to the last brick as well as the fertile land was sowed with salt so as to not support civilization for generations to come (kinda sounds nuclear don’t it!). Well who was this supper power that did the worse then nuclear option on the Moslems? It was Genghis Khan and the Mongols hoard. As for the Caliph and his family (don’t know if he had son’s named Uday and Qusay) they didn’t go before a world court or any other court. One story has the unfriendly Caliph brought before the Mongol leader where-upon the stolen gold and sliver, now recovered, was melted and poured down the mouth, ears, eyes and any other bodily orifice you can think of as punishment. Another story has the Mongul King obeying a Mongol prophecy were by no Persian Kings blood was to be spilt upon the desert sand. So the Calif and his family were wrapped in carpets (Persian carpets no doubt) and kicked to death – possibly the origin of the flying carpet…eh..maybe not;-). Either way what happened to the Persians under the Mongols was so devastating and lasting that the once great Persian civilization chronicled in the Arabian Knight stories and such was reduced to the dirty tribal nomads typical of the area now. Most of their great cities are still abandoned to this day. Maybe pitching a nuke on some-ones country isn’t the worst thing that can happen.

    What do you think?

  2. admin says:

    A very Reed-like response. I like it. Some folks say those fellows have been overdue an attitude adjustment since 1979.

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